Employment Situation Prediction for February 4th, 2011
February 3, 2011 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
While the unemployment rate fell in December, its fall was principally driven by the exit of over 500,000 job seekers from the labor force. I believe a substantial number of these workers will return to their search, thus increasing the unemployment rate to 9.7%.
Employment Situation Prediction for January 7th, 2011
January 7, 2011 by Dan Hartman · 1 Comment
Recently,economic information has shown a substantial trend towards improvement. Retail sales, business climate, manufacturing climate and factory orders have all shown some improvement in December. The only components of the economy that haven’t turned better lately appear to be housing and employment, two categories that are tied closely to each other. Home prices won’t rebound until employment levels improve, meaning that improvements in the employment situation must come first.
Mortgage Rates Rocket Higher on Inflation, Fed
December 15, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 1 Comment
Fixed income markets were a train wreck yesterday as inflation numbers came in high, and retail sales strong. The Fed didn’t do anything to help, reaffirming its take that the economy isn’t growing quickly enough, and that it would continue its asset purchase plans. This comes down to the Fed’s dual mandate: low unemployment and controlled inflation. Right now, the Fed sees inflation as under control and below its target level at the moment, and sees unemployment as the bigger problem.
Employers Add Scant 39,000 Jobs in November – A Reprieve for Mortgage Rates
December 3, 2010 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
It appears that labor markets may not be as strong as recent data have suggested. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Report was released this morning, showing a mere 39,000 jobs added in November, far below our estimate of 210,000 and other analysts average estimates of 130,000. A surprising drag on total employment was the retail sector. While expansion in that sector would ordinarily be expected at this time of the year, retail employment actually fell 28,100 in the month.
Employment Situation Prediction for Friday, December 3rd
December 2, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 3 Comments
Recent trends in the ADP report, and recent economic data, suggest that Private Employers added 225,000 net jobs in November. Total job creation is expected to be 210,000 jobs, as governments continue to cut employment. The unemployment rate is expected to hold stable at 9.6%, but may come under pressure in the near future as discouraged workers begin returning to the labor force.
Boston Federal Reserve President Speaks in Support of Quantitative Easing
November 17, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 2 Comments
Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston addressed the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce regarding the Fed’s recently initiated Large-Scale Asset Purchase program. Also know as Quantitative Easing, or “QEII”, this program was widely rumored since August, was announced November 3rd, and went into effect last Friday, November 12th. I personally attended the presentation.
Mortgage Rates Continue Rise on Consumer Sentiment in Spite of QEII
November 12, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 2 Comments
Mortgage pricing has worsened each day this week, and today isn’t any better, with average pricing about .25 points higher for most rates. Since last Wednesday’s Fed announcement, mortgage pricing is over 1.25 points worse, and average rates are creeping up, although this week’s Freddie Mac survey doesn’t quite reflect that yet. Freddie reported the average 30-year fixed rate at 4.17% with 0.8 points this week, substantially lower than average published rates from most lenders, especially in the latter half of the week.
Strong Jobs Growth in October Fails to Lower Unemployment
November 5, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 1 Comment
Non-farm employers added 151,000 positions in October, a substantial jump from declines previously announced for August and September. Gains were strongest among private, non-government employers who added 159,000 positions. This sector has been viewed as key to moving employment in the economy forward. Government is unlikely to increase its hiring any time soon, especially with the potential for gridlock between Capitol Hill and the White House.
Statistically Evaluating the Jobs Report – A Prediction for Friday November 5th
November 4, 2010 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
The ADP Private Payrolls report was believed to be most closely correlated to the Private Employment component of the Employment Situation report. Analyzing the data, substantial correlation was found, with a coefficient of correlation over 0.86. This indicates that the relationship believed to exist between the two surveys is present. Correlation analysis was also performed on the relationship between ADP and Total Payrolls.
Fed Acts, Mortgage Markets React
November 4, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 3 Comments
The long-awaited Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee meeting concluded yesterday, and the worst-kept secret in financial markets was revealed. The Fed views the economy as growing insufficiently quickly to correct its biggest problem – unemployment. It’s action? Over the next 9 months, the Fed has committed to purchase $600 billion in medium term Treasury securities.
