Employment Situation Prediction for May 6th, 2011
May 5, 2011 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
April private payrolls expected up 170,000; Labor-force participation rate at multi-decade low; Unemployment rate expected to rise to 9.0% A meaningful correlation exists between the ADP Private Payrolls report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation Report. I have used data from the past 5 years reports to develop a prediction for tomorrow’s [...]
Bernanke Cites Lack of Inflation in Statement Supporting Fed Action – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for October 15th, 2010
October 15, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 2 Comments
Mortgage pricing opened worse this morning, but has stabilized since then and is just above yesterday’s close. Pricing had trailed off late yesterday on weak results in the 30-year Treasury bond auction. Mortgage rates are still very near all-time lows, with the latest Freddie Mac survey showing an average 4.19% 30-year fixed rate with 0.8 points. This means that there is a greater risk of rates worsening in the short term than there is opportunity for them to improve.
Personal Spending Up, Consumer Confidence Surges, But is Case-Schiller Home Price Index Relevant? – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for August 31st, 2010
August 31, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 2 Comments
Mortgage pricing has swung wildly over the past 3 days. Initially, it appeared that Friday’s activity was a reaction to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments at the Jackson Hole Conference, however, yesterday’s almost complete rebound on almost no news brought question to that. Mortgage pricing today is again at an all time high, and may struggle to move any higher, leading to record low rates. I suspect that last week’s Freddie Mac survey rate of 4.36% may be bested once again this Thursday.
GDP Growth Revised Down; New Record Low Mortgage Rate: 4.36% – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for August 27th, 2010
August 27, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 2 Comments
The Commerce Department announced the first revision of its 2nd quarter GDP results, lowering its earlier estimate for growth to 1.6% from the advanced estimate of 2.4%. This lower revision was still higher than analysts had expected; they had called for a revision down to 1.4%. Many had expected the downward revision after a large number of disappointing economic reports recently.
Jobless Claims Rise; Home Sales Fall; 30-Year Fixed Rate Hits New Record Low – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for July 22nd, 2010
July 22, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 2 Comments
For most home buyers, the first time home buyer tax credit is gone. There are a few groups still eligible. A recent extension wet through allowing buyers who entered contract by April 30th extra time to close due to challenges such as overloaded underwriting departments or delays in processing short sale agreements. In addition, members of the Armed Forces serving on official extended duty outside the US have until April 30th, 2011 to enter into a contract, and until June 30, 2011 to close, in recognition of their service, and the difficulty of taking advantage of the tax credit while abroad.
Jobless Benefits Extension on the Way – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for July 21st, 2010
July 21, 2010 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
Unemployment benefit extension had been opposed by Senate Republicans, not on principle, but rather on affordability – for the government to pay these benefits, it must borrow money through the Treasury. The extension may very well be one of the best forms of economic stimulus possible, though.
