ADP Report Reveals Weakening Employment Situation – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for October 6th, 2010
October 6, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 1 Comment
Payroll and human resources firm ADP this morning reported the results of its September survey of private payrolls, and the results were somewhat worse than expected. Employers reduced their payrolls by 39,000 jobs in September, when economists had been hoping to see an increase of 18,000 jobs. Coupled with the last major round of Census layoffs, this could lead to a sharply worse employment picture in Friday’s employment situation report.
Industrial Production Growth Slows; Japan Acts to Bolster Dollar – Daily Mortage Rate Update for September 15th, 2010
September 15, 2010 by Dan Hartman · 1 Comment
One analyst I read regularly suggested this morning that he sees a period in the near future where interest rates may once again approach recent lows we’ve seen, based on the substantially weak data that we’ve seen this summer. Whether he’s right or not will take 4-6 weeks to reveal itself. The first major test is tomorrow’s weekly unemployment claims report.
Japanese Growth Revised Higher; Stock Lever Fully in Play – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for September 10th, 2010
September 10, 2010 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
With the exception of this past Tuesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed higher every day this month, as investors see continued assurance in the mildly better economic news that has been published. Improvements in the trade deficit, unemployment claims, and jobs have all contributed to support stock prices and depress pricing of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury notes, leading to weaker pricing in those fixed income markets, and suggesting that we have likely seen the recent peak in mortgage pricing. We refer to the pricing phenomenon that results from investors shifting assets from bond to stock markets, and vice-versa, as the “stock lever”.
Global Economic Weakness Comes Home; Existing Home Sales Tumble – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for August 24th, 2010
August 24, 2010 by Dan Hartman · Leave a Comment
The National Association of Realtors reported on existing home sales in July this morning, and the results were dismal. Home sales declined at a year-over-year pace of 27.2%, falling to a pace of 3.83 million units per year. While this information sounds very bad, bear in mind that the figures reported by NAR annualize a single month’s results. The housing sector has been viewed as the destroyer of the economy, and is widely seen as the sector that will lead the economy back to normalcy in the future.
