Non-farms payrolls expected up 90,000; Unemployment rate believed steady at 9.2%; Weak GDP growth seen as a major obstacle A meaningful correlation exists between the ADP Private Payrolls report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation Report. I have used data from the past 5 years reports to develop a prediction for tomorrow’s […]
The official unemployment rate rose to 9.1% in May, as, in spite of meaningful increases in employed residents, even more previously discouraged workers returned to the labor force. I believe that the opposite effect will be seen in June, as the volume of negative news likely caused more workers to give up their searches. Due to this decrease in the labor force, the unemployment rate is expected to decrease to 8.9%.
Concerns began to play out in May, as several significant economic activity surveys, including the important Philadelphia and New York Fed surveys, showed a sharp decline in underlying economic growth. In addition, weekly claims for unemployment benefits have climbed significantly, a disturbing trend as it could eventually impact hiring.
April private payrolls expected up 170,000; Labor-force participation rate at multi-decade low; Unemployment rate expected to rise to 9.0% A meaningful correlation exists between the ADP Private Payrolls report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly Employment Situation Report. I have used data from the past 5 years reports to develop a prediction for tomorrow’s […]
It appears that labor markets may not be as strong as recent data have suggested. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Report was released this morning, showing a mere 39,000 jobs added in November, far below our estimate of 210,000 and other analysts average estimates of 130,000. A surprising drag on total employment was the retail sector. While expansion in that sector would ordinarily be expected at this time of the year, retail employment actually fell 28,100 in the month.
Recent trends in the ADP report, and recent economic data, suggest that Private Employers added 225,000 net jobs in November. Total job creation is expected to be 210,000 jobs, as governments continue to cut employment. The unemployment rate is expected to hold stable at 9.6%, but may come under pressure in the near future as discouraged workers begin returning to the labor force.
95,000 Jobs Lost on Government Cuts, Private Employers Add 64,000 – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for October 8th, 2010
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this morning that the US Economy shed 95,000 jobs in September. This result missed average economist estimates for a loss of only 5,000 jobs, and was largely driven by a substantial increase in government layoffs. In addition to 77,000 temporary Census workers whose positions ended, 76,000 positions were cut by state and local governments struggling to balance budgets in the aftermath of the economic crisis. These cuts far outweighed the 64,000 jobs added by private employers in September.
Private Employers Surprise Markets, Add 67,000 Jobs in July – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for September 3rd, 2010
The unemployment rate ticked upward slightly to 9.6%. This rate, which tracks the number of workers who have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks, compared with the total of that figure plus those who have held a job in that time frame, has been steady in the 9.5-9.7% range for several months. The increase this month over last month’s 9.5% is largely attributed to a number of previously discouraged workers, that is, workers who had given up on looking for work, returning to their search.
Disappointing Jobs Growth; Why the Unemployment Rate is Meaningless – Daily Mortgage Rate Update for August 6th, 2010
Interestingly, the unemployment rate for July remained stable at 9.5%, pointing to some of the fallacies of that figure. In the United States, unemployment is measured as the percentage of the labor force that is not working, but has actively searched for employment in the last 30 days. Given the depth of the economic crisis from which we are recovering, there are many who have been unemployed for a long time, and who have given up looking altogether, while waiting for better times.